Fins Up or Flop? My Miami Dolphins 2026 Season Prediction

With the first two games of the preseason in the books, I’ve had some time to reflect on the Miami Dolphins and what this upcoming season could look like.

Earlier in the offseason, I made my first prediction and had Miami finishing 6-12, with wins over the Raiders, Vikings, Bengals, Jets, and Packers.

After watching the first two preseason games, though, some of my thoughts have changed.

I still think this team has a lot to work on, and there are definitely some uncertainties—especially in the quarterback room. But my biggest concern right now is the offensive line.

I’m no NFL expert by any means, but I’ve been around football long enough as a fan, player, and now a coach to know that it doesn't matter how many weapons you have if you can't consistently win up front.

I also think some of Miami's offseason moves hurt the offense.

The biggest one for me was losing Jaylen Waddle. I think Waddle could have been a great asset to this offense and an explosive weapon for Malik Willis. Losing a player with that type of speed and playmaking ability changes what a defense has to prepare for.

Another major loss was Bradley Chubb on the defensive side.

On the flip side, Miami acquired former Dolphin Minkah Fitzpatrick, which brings a veteran presence to the defense. His experience and leadership could be extremely valuable, especially for some of the younger players on that side of the ball.

But enough offseason talk.

Let's get to my 2026 predictions.

Week 1 — vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Prediction: DOLPHINS WIN

I still think the Dolphins have a good chance to beat the Raiders.

With questions surrounding the quarterback position in Las Vegas and what I see as a lack of depth at wide receiver, I think Miami's defense will be able to handle its business.

Starting the season with a win would also be huge for the confidence of this team.

Record: 1-0

Week 2 — at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ERS WIN

This is where I think Miami runs into trouble.

Brock Purdy is going to be looking to make a statement this season, and adding Mike Evans gives San Francisco another veteran weapon who brings energy, experience, and another major problem for opposing defenses.

I think Miami struggles badly in this matchup.

Record: 1-1

Week 3 — vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: CHIEFS WIN

Even though this one is at home, I have similar concerns as I do against San Francisco.

Patrick Mahomes is looking for a major comeback season in 2026, and if he stays healthy, Kansas City's explosive offense is going to be difficult for this Dolphins defense to contain.

Miami keeps it interesting early, but Kansas City eventually takes control.

Record: 1-2

Week 4 — at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: DOLPHINS WIN

I think Miami gets back on track here.

Minnesota has its own questions at quarterback with the battle between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy. The biggest question for me is whether McCarthy can stay healthy and, if Murray gets the job, whether he can consistently play at a high level.

I think Miami takes advantage of the uncertainty and gets a big road win.

Record: 2-2

Week 5 — Home

Prediction: DOLPHINS WIN

Coming off the Week 4 road victory, I think the Dolphins return home with some confidence.

This is where Miami starts putting some things together offensively and gets its first home win of the season.

Suddenly, after starting 1-2, Miami has won two straight.

Record: 3-2

Week 6 — BYE

Miami enters the bye at 3-2 and feeling pretty good.

This is a huge early-season opportunity for the coaching staff to evaluate what's working, fix some of the offensive-line issues, and prepare for an AFC East matchup against the New York Jets.

Week 7 — at New York Jets

Prediction: DOLPHINS WIN

I think Miami handles the Jets pretty easily.

Coming off the bye gives the Dolphins extra preparation time, and I think they come out ready to play.

Miami moves to 4-2, and at this point people might start wondering whether the Dolphins are actually better than expected.

Record: 4-2

Week 8 — vs. New England Patriots

Prediction: PATRIOTS WIN

This is where things start getting difficult.

New England comes into Miami fresh off Drake Maye's first Super Bowl appearance, and with the addition of A.J. Brown and other pieces around him, I think the Patriots are going to be extremely dangerous.

New England comes into Miami and controls this game.

Record: 4-3

Week 9 — vs. Detroit Lions

Prediction: LIONS WIN

Another tough matchup.

Detroit has an explosive offense, and this is one of those games where I worry about Miami's young defense being able to keep up for four quarters.

I think Detroit eventually overwhelms them.

Record: 4-4

Week 10 — at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: COLTS WIN

Miami hits the road, but things don't get easier.

Daniel "Danny Dimes" Jones and Jonathan Taylor could give this Dolphins defense major problems. Taylor especially is the type of running back who can punish a young defense if the tackling and gap discipline aren't there.

Indianapolis takes it.

Record: 4-5

Week 11 — at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: BILLS WIN

Josh Allen. James Cook. Keon Coleman.

That's a lot for this Dolphins defense to deal with.

Going into Buffalo is already difficult, and I think the Bills' playmakers put up big numbers in this one.

That's four straight losses for Miami after its promising 4-2 start.

Record: 4-6

Week 12 — vs. New York Jets

Prediction: DOLPHINS WIN

Miami desperately needs this one.

After losing four straight, the Dolphins return home against the Jets and finally stop the bleeding.

It might not be pretty, but Miami gets back into the win column.

Record: 5-6

Week 13 — at Denver Broncos

Prediction: BRONCOS WIN

The Jaylen Waddle revenge game.

Waddle gets his opportunity to make a statement against his former team, and I think he does exactly that.

Going into Denver isn't easy to begin with, and I think the Broncos take this one.

Record: 5-7

Week 14 — vs. Chicago Bears

Prediction: BEARS WIN

Caleb Williams and the Bears come to Miami, and I think this ends up being one of the closer games of the season.

Miami fights, but Chicago finds a way to finish it late.

Record: 5-8

Week 15 — at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: DOLPHINS WIN

This is one of my upset picks.

Jordan Love comes out ready to put on a show against his former coach, while Malik Willis gets the opportunity to make his own statement in front of the Green Bay fans.

I think Willis and the Dolphins find a way to pull off the road upset.

Record: 6-8

Week 16 — vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Prediction: CHARGERS WIN

After a big win in Green Bay, Miami comes home hoping to build some late-season momentum.

Unfortunately, I think the Chargers spoil it.

At this point in the season, Miami's weaknesses—especially up front—are going to be difficult to hide.

Record: 6-9

Week 17 — vs. Buffalo Bills

Prediction: BILLS WIN

Buffalo comes to Miami, and we already know how Bills fans travel.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hard Rock Stadium feels like a Buffalo home game.

Miami competes, but Josh Allen and the Bills complete the season sweep.

Record: 6-10

Week 18 — at New England Patriots

Prediction: PATRIOTS WIN

The Dolphins close the season on the road against New England.

At this point, I expect the Patriots to be preparing for another playoff run. Miami would love nothing more than to play spoiler, but I think New England takes care of business at home.

FINAL RECORD: 6-12

Final Thoughts

So after two preseason games and another look at the roster, I'm sticking with my prediction:

The Miami Dolphins finish 6-12.

There are things I like about this team, and I think there will be moments during the season—especially if they start 4-2—where Dolphins fans start believing this team could surprise people.

But the schedule gets much harder after the bye.

The biggest thing I'll be watching is the offensive line. Can they protect Malik Willis? Can Miami consistently run the football? Can the offense stay on the field long enough to keep a young defense from getting worn down?

The quarterback situation is another major question mark.

And that's what makes this season interesting.

I don't think Miami is going to be one of the worst teams in football, but I also don't think they're ready to compete with teams like Buffalo, New England, Kansas City, Detroit, and San Francisco.

Could I be completely wrong? Absolutely.

That's why they play the games.

My final prediction: Miami Dolphins — 6-12.

Fins Up. 🐬